Inflation expectations continue to drop

Declining inflation indicates an end to the restrictive monetary policy that has significantly shaped markets for slightly more than a year. The bond market has been signaling this for some time, as the Fed’s first interest rate cuts in more than 3 years are already priced into the market by the end of the year.

Economy at a crossroads

19 April 2023

Current events show that the financial sector is in a fragile state. Given the delayed impact of higher interest rates, it is not surprising that the global economy is at a crossroads about a year after the start of interest rate tightening.

Crisis of confidence

22 March 2023

The financial sector is flashing a clear warning signal. Higher interest rates are leaving the first cracks in an obviously fragile banking system. The consequences could turn out to be a paradigm shift in terms of monetary policy.

Back in the summer of 69

22 February 2023

The creation of new jobs led to a reduction in the unemployment rate in the USA to 3.4% – it has never been this low since the summer of 1969. What impact does this have on consumer behavior and thus on the markets?

Central banks face a credibility issue

26 January 2023

The Federal Reserve is forecasting another 3-4 interest rate steps for the current year. However, the expectations of market participants differ significantly from these predictions. This creates potential for tension

From Inflation to Recession

11 January 2023

In this issue, we take a closer look at 2022 and put investment returns in a historical context. We show where there are opportunities despite the current difficult situation and how we are positioning ourselves for them.

One Swallow Does Not Make a Summer

23 November 2022

Since our last report, macroeconomic data provided additional evidence that future growth is softening and price pressure will likely level off. However, central banks are not yet talking about stopping rate hikes or even lowering interest rates. True to the saying: “One swallow doesn’t make a summer.”

The Perfect Storm

27 October 2022

Bonds are suffering from unprecedented losses. In this issue of Sound Invest, we put this year’s bond losses in historical context and shed light on the impact of higher interest rates.

The Core of the Problem

21 September 2022

Rising Risk Appetite

25 August 2022

The prospect of a less aggressive monetary tightening led to an increase in risk appetite across financial markets. Is a change in trend foreseeable?

Is a Recession on the Horizon?

28 July 2022

The powerful tightening of key interest rates to bring inflation under control has triggered almost seismic changes in the markets. Weakening economic indicators increasingly point to a potential economic downturn.

Outlook for the Second Half of the Year

30 June 2022

At mid-year, global equity markets are in a bear market. Opportunities seem within reach, but require discipline and the right focus.

Farewell TINA

24 May 2022

The term TINA (“there is no alternative”) has been a key feature of financial markets for a long time. However, with the current market turmoil, yields in the bond market signal that “there is an alternative” for USD investors.

Sentiment vs. Reality

27 April 2022

Sentiment vs. Reality: War, inflation, rising recession fears and a negative investor sentiment blur the outlook. Central banks continue to face increasing pressure.

Risk of Stagflation

23 March 2022

Risk of Stagflation: The war in Ukraine and a renewed lockdown in China are worsening an already tense situation of supply shortage and global inflation. While inflationary pressure is increasing, rising energy prices will have a negative impact on economic growth, particularly in Europe.

Markets send mixed Signals

21 February 2022

Markets send mixed signals: Rampant inflation unsettles investors. US inflation accelerated again in January. With an increase of 7.5% year over year, numbers were higher than expected.

Rising Pressure on Central Banks

26 January 2022

Rising pressure on central banks: Inflation prompts mounting urgency on fed to accelerate tapering. 2022 will mark the end of loose monetary policy to combat a persistent rise in inflation.

The great Reset of the global Economy

6 January 2022

The great reset of the global economy: The pandemic-ridden year of 2020 was followed by yet another unusual investment year.

Inflation vs. Inflation Expectations

29 November 2021

Inflation vs. Inflation Expectations: It is difficult to make predictions – particularly about the future

Financial Repression

1 November 2021

Financial Repression: Inflation overshoots as central banks continue to buy bonds

Bad News out of China

29 September 2021

Bad news out of China: The market expects a low chance of contagion risk from Chinese real estate

US Inflation likely to have peaked

23 August 2021

US inflation likely to have peaked: July US consumer prices rose 5.4%, same level as in June