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Gloomy Outlook unsettles Investors
29 October 2023
The tightening of financial conditions for borrowing is once again exacerbated with a further increase in USD interest rates. A decreasing economic momentum is partially anticipated and is increasingly offering opportunities in the equity space.
Higher for longer – interest rate pivot postponed
27 September 2023
The latest adjustment to the Feds forecasts has taken market participants by surprise, as the timing for the expected interest rate pivot has been pushed further into the future. Particularly noteworthy is the change in the expected in-terest rate level.
Longer-dated bond yields rise
28 August 2023
In August, for the fourth consecutive month, long-term USD interest rates have increased compared to the previous month. As a result, US government bonds lost ground and are now showing a negative performance since the beginning of the year. 10-year US government bond yields approached 4.35%, the highest level since 2007.
Inflation continues to fall
26 July 2023
The US continues to experience a decline in inflation rates, with June reporting the lowest figure since 2021 at approximately 3%. A noteworthy aspect of this development is the persistent core inflation which has significantly dropped to 4.8%, a more substantial decrease than anticipated by economists.
Central banks continue to raise interest rates
30 June 2023
Inflation expectations continue to drop
27 May 2023
Declining inflation indicates an end to the restrictive monetary policy that has significantly shaped markets for slightly more than a year. The bond market has been signaling this for some time, as the Fed’s first interest rate cuts in more than 3 years are already priced into the market by the end of the year.
Economy at a crossroads
19 April 2023
Current events show that the financial sector is in a fragile state. Given the delayed impact of higher interest rates, it is not surprising that the global economy is at a crossroads about a year after the start of interest rate tightening.
Crisis of confidence
22 March 2023
The financial sector is flashing a clear warning signal. Higher interest rates are leaving the first cracks in an obviously fragile banking system. The consequences could turn out to be a paradigm shift in terms of monetary policy.
Back in the summer of 69
22 February 2023
The creation of new jobs led to a reduction in the unemployment rate in the USA to 3.4% – it has never been this low since the summer of 1969. What impact does this have on consumer behavior and thus on the markets?
Central banks face a credibility issue
26 January 2023
The Federal Reserve is forecasting another 3-4 interest rate steps for the current year. However, the expectations of market participants differ significantly from these predictions. This creates potential for tension
From Inflation to Recession
11 January 2023
In this issue, we take a closer look at 2022 and put investment returns in a historical context. We show where there are opportunities despite the current difficult situation and how we are positioning ourselves for them.
One Swallow Does Not Make a Summer
23 November 2022
Since our last report, macroeconomic data provided additional evidence that future growth is softening and price pressure will likely level off. However, central banks are not yet talking about stopping rate hikes or even lowering interest rates. True to the saying: “One swallow doesn’t make a summer.”
The Perfect Storm
27 October 2022
Bonds are suffering from unprecedented losses. In this issue of Sound Invest, we put this year’s bond losses in historical context and shed light on the impact of higher interest rates.
The Core of the Problem
21 September 2022
Rising Risk Appetite
25 August 2022
The prospect of a less aggressive monetary tightening led to an increase in risk appetite across financial markets. Is a change in trend foreseeable?
Is a Recession on the Horizon?
28 July 2022
The powerful tightening of key interest rates to bring inflation under control has triggered almost seismic changes in the markets. Weakening economic indicators increasingly point to a potential economic downturn.
Outlook for the Second Half of the Year
30 June 2022
At mid-year, global equity markets are in a bear market. Opportunities seem within reach, but require discipline and the right focus.
24 May 2022
The term TINA (“there is no alternative”) has been a key feature of financial markets for a long time. However, with the current market turmoil, yields in the bond market signal that “there is an alternative” for USD investors.
Sentiment vs. Reality
27 April 2022
Sentiment vs. Reality: War, inflation, rising recession fears and a negative investor sentiment blur the outlook. Central banks continue to face increasing pressure.
Risk of Stagflation
23 March 2022
Risk of Stagflation: The war in Ukraine and a renewed lockdown in China are worsening an already tense situation of supply shortage and global inflation. While inflationary pressure is increasing, rising energy prices will have a negative impact on economic growth, particularly in Europe.
Markets send mixed Signals
21 February 2022
Markets send mixed signals: Rampant inflation unsettles investors. US inflation accelerated again in January. With an increase of 7.5% year over year, numbers were higher than expected.
Rising Pressure on Central Banks
26 January 2022
Rising pressure on central banks: Inflation prompts mounting urgency on fed to accelerate tapering. 2022 will mark the end of loose monetary policy to combat a persistent rise in inflation.
The great Reset of the global Economy
6 January 2022
The great reset of the global economy: The pandemic-ridden year of 2020 was followed by yet another unusual investment year.
Inflation vs. Inflation Expectations
29 November 2021
Inflation vs. Inflation Expectations: It is difficult to make predictions – particularly about the future
1 November 2021
Financial Repression: Inflation overshoots as central banks continue to buy bonds
Bad News out of China
29 September 2021
Bad news out of China: The market expects a low chance of contagion risk from Chinese real estate