Sound Invest Are you interested in our Newsletter? Sign up now: Sound Invest Gloomy Outlook unsettles Investors29 October 2023The tightening of financial conditions for borrowing is once again exacerbated with a further increase in USD interest rates. A decreasing economic momentum is partially anticipated and is increasingly offering opportunities in the equity space. Read the complete editionHigher for longer – interest rate pivot postponed27 September 2023The latest adjustment to the Feds forecasts has taken market participants by surprise, as the timing for the expected interest rate pivot has been pushed further into the future. Particularly noteworthy is the change in the expected in-terest rate level. Read the complete editionLonger-dated bond yields rise28 August 2023In August, for the fourth consecutive month, long-term USD interest rates have increased compared to the previous month. As a result, US government bonds lost ground and are now showing a negative performance since the beginning of the year. 10-year US government bond yields approached 4.35%, the highest level since 2007. Read the complete editionInflation continues to fall26 July 2023 The US continues to experience a decline in inflation rates, with June reporting the lowest figure since 2021 at approximately 3%. A noteworthy aspect of this development is the persistent core inflation which has significantly dropped to 4.8%, a more substantial decrease than anticipated by economists. Read the complete editionCentral banks continue to raise interest rates30 June 2023 While the Federal Reserve refrained from raising interest rates in June for the first time in over a year, it surprised the market by announcing two more rate hikes by the end of the year. Central banks are increasingly shifting their attention towards the labor market. Read the complete editionInflation expectations continue to drop27 May 2023Declining inflation indicates an end to the restrictive monetary policy that has significantly shaped markets for slightly more than a year. The bond market has been signaling this for some time, as the Fed’s first interest rate cuts in more than 3 years are already priced into the market by the end of the year. Read the complete editionEconomy at a crossroads 19 April 2023Current events show that the financial sector is in a fragile state. Given the delayed impact of higher interest rates, it is not surprising that the global economy is at a crossroads about a year after the start of interest rate tightening. Read the complete editionCrisis of confidence22 March 2023The financial sector is flashing a clear warning signal. Higher interest rates are leaving the first cracks in an obviously fragile banking system. The consequences could turn out to be a paradigm shift in terms of monetary policy. Read the complete editionBack in the summer of 6922 February 2023The creation of new jobs led to a reduction in the unemployment rate in the USA to 3.4% – it has never been this low since the summer of 1969. What impact does this have on consumer behavior and thus on the markets? Read the complete editionCentral banks face a credibility issue26 January 2023The Federal Reserve is forecasting another 3-4 interest rate steps for the current year. However, the expectations of market participants differ significantly from these predictions. This creates potential for tension Read the complete editionFrom Inflation to Recession11 January 2023In this issue, we take a closer look at 2022 and put investment returns in a historical context. We show where there are opportunities despite the current difficult situation and how we are positioning ourselves for them. Read the complete editionOne Swallow Does Not Make a Summer23 November 2022Since our last report, macroeconomic data provided additional evidence that future growth is softening and price pressure will likely level off. However, central banks are not yet talking about stopping rate hikes or even lowering interest rates. True to the saying: “One swallow doesn’t make a summer.” Read the complete editionThe Perfect Storm27 October 2022Bonds are suffering from unprecedented losses. In this issue of Sound Invest, we put this year’s bond losses in historical context and shed light on the impact of higher interest rates. Read the complete editionThe Core of the Problem21 September 2022 Despite lower energy prices, U.S. inflation increased again in August. Core inflation is also at the core of the problem, which we explore in this month’s Sound Invest issue. Read the complete editionRising Risk Appetite25 August 2022The prospect of a less aggressive monetary tightening led to an increase in risk appetite across financial markets. Is a change in trend foreseeable? Read the complete editionIs a Recession on the Horizon?28 July 2022The powerful tightening of key interest rates to bring inflation under control has triggered almost seismic changes in the markets. Weakening economic indicators increasingly point to a potential economic downturn. Read the complete editionOutlook for the Second Half of the Year30 June 2022At mid-year, global equity markets are in a bear market. Opportunities seem within reach, but require discipline and the right focus. Read the complete editionFarewell TINA24 May 2022The term TINA (“there is no alternative”) has been a key feature of financial markets for a long time. However, with the current market turmoil, yields in the bond market signal that “there is an alternative” for USD investors. Read the complete editionSentiment vs. Reality27 April 2022Sentiment vs. Reality: War, inflation, rising recession fears and a negative investor sentiment blur the outlook. Central banks continue to face increasing pressure. Read the complete editionRisk of Stagflation23 March 2022Risk of Stagflation: The war in Ukraine and a renewed lockdown in China are worsening an already tense situation of supply shortage and global inflation. While inflationary pressure is increasing, rising energy prices will have a negative impact on economic growth, particularly in Europe. Read the complete editionMarkets send mixed Signals 21 February 2022Markets send mixed signals: Rampant inflation unsettles investors. US inflation accelerated again in January. With an increase of 7.5% year over year, numbers were higher than expected. Read the complete editionRising Pressure on Central Banks26 January 2022Rising pressure on central banks: Inflation prompts mounting urgency on fed to accelerate tapering. 2022 will mark the end of loose monetary policy to combat a persistent rise in inflation. Read the complete editionThe great Reset of the global Economy6 January 2022The great reset of the global economy: The pandemic-ridden year of 2020 was followed by yet another unusual investment year. Read the complete editionInflation vs. Inflation Expectations29 November 2021Inflation vs. Inflation Expectations: It is difficult to make predictions – particularly about the future Read the complete editionFinancial Repression1 November 2021Financial Repression: Inflation overshoots as central banks continue to buy bonds Read the complete editionBad News out of China29 September 2021Bad news out of China: The market expects a low chance of contagion risk from Chinese real estate Read the complete editionUS Inflation likely to have peaked23 August 2021US inflation likely to have peaked: July US consumer prices rose 5.4%, same level as in June Read the complete edition Archiv